Nigeria’s Petrol Crisis: Dangote vs. Imports, Price Hikes, and the Battle for Fuel Supply

The Implications of Nigeria’s Latest Petrol Import Surge on the Petroleum Industry, Consumers, and the Economy

The recent report by the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) indicating that petroleum marketers and retailers imported 154.22 million litres of petrol between March 17 and 23, 2025, raises critical concerns about Nigeria’s energy security, the role of the Dangote Refinery, and the broader economic implications.

At a time when Nigeria is striving for fuel self-sufficiency, the heavy reliance on imports, despite Dangote Refinery’s operational status, sparks questions about pricing, supply dynamics, and economic policies. Let’s delve into the key takeaways and their implications for Nigeria’s petroleum sector, consumers, and the economy.

1. The Petroleum Industry: Dangote Refinery and the Import Surge

The Dangote Refinery, a 650,000 barrels per day facility, was expected to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel. However, this latest wave of importation shows that local production is yet to meet demand. A few key factors could be responsible:

Price Disparity: The ex-depot price of Dangote Refinery’s petrol currently stands at ₦815–₦825 per litre, while imported petrol’s landing cost ranges between ₦774–₦797 per litre. Marketers, driven by profit motives, will naturally opt for cheaper imports.

Dangote’s Forex Policy: The refinery’s suspension of Naira sales for petroleum products has further complicated the situation. Marketers and retailers may find importing in foreign currency more viable than dealing with Dangote Refinery in dollars.

Refinery Utilization: While Dangote Refinery is operational, its full-scale production capacity is not yet maximized. This, coupled with Nigeria’s other three refineries contributing less than 50% of the country’s daily demand, leaves a supply gap that imports are filling.


What This Means for the Petroleum Industry

1. Competition Between Dangote and Importers: Marketers now have the option of choosing between Dangote Refinery and imports, leading to price-based competition.


2. Forex Pressure: Increased imports mean higher foreign exchange demand, which could further pressure the Naira against the dollar.


3. NNPCL’s Reduced Monopoly: With marketers seeking alternatives, the NNPCL’s dominance in petrol supply is gradually weakening.



2. The Consumers: What’s in It for Nigerians?

For the average Nigerian, fuel price stability and availability are top priorities. However, this import surge presents mixed implications:

Potential Benefits

✅ More Supply, Less Scarcity: With additional imports, petrol scarcity is less likely in the short term.
✅ Competitive Pricing: If importers can source cheaper fuel, it may force Dangote Refinery to review its pricing strategy, leading to possible price reductions.

Potential Downsides

❌ No Guaranteed Price Drop: While import prices seem lower than Dangote’s, marketers could still sell at a premium to maximize profits.
❌ Continued Forex Pressure: If importers rely heavily on dollars to source fuel, it could weaken the Naira, leading to higher inflation that affects fuel prices and general living costs.
❌ No End to Deregulated Price Volatility: Since the market is deregulated, prices will fluctuate based on global oil prices and exchange rates, making long-term affordability uncertain.

3. The Nigerian Economy: Winners and Losers

Who Stands to Benefit?

✔️ Petroleum Marketers & Retailers: The flexibility to source from different suppliers gives marketers more negotiating power and potentially higher profit margins.
✔️ Importing Companies & Shipping Agents: With Nigeria still relying on imports, businesses involved in maritime logistics, shipping, and storage stand to gain.
✔️ Foreign Refineries & Exporters: The failure to fully utilize local refining capacity benefits foreign refiners selling to Nigeria.

Who Faces Challenges?

❌ Naira Stability: The reliance on fuel imports puts pressure on foreign reserves, making currency depreciation a real concern.
❌ Government Revenue: If more fuel is imported instead of being refined locally, the government may lose expected revenue from domestic refining activities.
❌ Dangote Refinery: If marketers prefer cheaper imports, Dangote Refinery may struggle to achieve its expected market dominance, affecting its revenue model.

Final Thoughts: Where Does Nigeria Go from Here?

The return to significant petrol importation highlights a persistent structural challenge in Nigeria’s energy sector. While Dangote Refinery’s long-term impact remains promising, factors like pricing, forex policies, and infrastructure limitations must be addressed.

For Nigerians, short-term supply stability is a relief, but the long-term goal must be self-sufficiency in refining. The government, in collaboration with private stakeholders, needs to:

✅ Ensure price competitiveness between locally refined and imported fuel.
✅ Improve forex policies to reduce excessive reliance on the dollar for local transactions.
✅ Maximize local refining capacity to minimize unnecessary imports.

Ultimately, achieving fuel security requires a balanced mix of competitive pricing, regulatory efficiency, and investment in refining infrastructure. Otherwise, the cycle of dependence on imports will persist, keeping Nigeria at the mercy of foreign suppliers and fluctuating forex rates.

What are your thoughts on this? Should Nigeria continue importing fuel despite having a functional mega-refinery? Share your opinions in the comments!